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Predictive Data ScienceFlagship Project

Solar Power Generation Forecasting Engine

Predictive regression modeling and exploratory data science pipeline analyzing multi-sensor weather & irradiation telemetry

Yash Jondhale
Yash Jondhale

AI/ML Engineer & GenAI Systems Architect • Savitribai Phule Pune University (SPPU)

Accuracy Gain
+10% Forecast R² Over Baseline
Interface
Interactive Streamlit Simulation UI
Data Pipeline
Automated Outlier & Missing Value Handling
Domain Impact
Grid Frequency & Battery Optimization
01 • Challenge & Context

The Problem Statement

Grid-tied solar photovoltaic installations suffer from unpredictable energy delivery due to sudden shifts in cloud cover, ambient temperature, and angle of solar irradiation. Inaccurate day-ahead generation estimates lead to expensive spinning reserve activations and grid frequency instability.
02 • Engineering Design

Solution Architecture & Implementation

Developed during the Data Science Internship at Altair Engineering. The pipeline ingests multi-sensor historical telemetry from solar plant inverters and weather monitoring stations. Conducted statistical Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA), Pearson correlation mapping, and feature transformations (polynomial irradiation terms). Built multiple regression models comparing Linear, Ridge, Lasso, and Random Forest algorithms before packaging the top-performing model into an interactive Streamlit dashboard.

03 • Core Innovations

Key Engineering Innovations

Covariance Feature Modeling: Discovered non-linear inverse efficiency thresholds where extreme module temperatures degrade solar output despite high solar irradiation.

Interactive What-If Dashboard: Empowered plant operators to simulate expected megawatt generation by manipulating expected cloud-cover percentages.

Robust K-Fold Validation: Applied time-aware train-test splits to avoid temporal data leakage across seasonal transitions.

04 • Verified Metrics

Performance Benchmarks & Empirical Impact

MetricBefore / BaselineEngineeredNet Impact
Prediction R² Score0.78 (Standard Linear)0.884 (Optimized)+10.4% Explanatory Power
Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)48.2 kW32.1 kW33.4% Error Reduction
Inference SpeedBatch Scripts<12ms per PredictionReal-Time Telemetry Ready
05 • Technical Breakdown

Technology Stack Architecture

Data Science & Stats

PandasNumPySciPyStatistical Hypothesis Testing

Machine Learning

Scikit-learnLinear RegressionRidge / LassoRandom Forest Regressor

Visualization & Apps

StreamlitSeabornMatplotlibPlotly Interactive
Technical Collaboration

Looking for an AI/ML Engineer or GenAI Consultant?

Yash Jondhale delivers production-ready RAG pipelines, FastAPI microservices, and computer vision systems. Available for machine learning roles and enterprise AI advisory.